Topic > Measuring Risk with Probability Distributions - 1590

Risk is an integral part of everyday human life. We both seek and are involuntarily exposed to varying degrees of risk. Risk can be defined as a situation with more than one outcome. Risk should be quantifiable, meaning that the person taking the risk should have an idea of ​​the probability of possible outcomes occurring. For example, investing in a stock. Investing in a stock can give the investor multiple results, it can give a negative result, such as when the stock performs poorly in the market and decreases in value. Or it can give a positive result, such as when the stock performs strongly in the market and the stock increases in value. The performance of a security can be measured through past data collected from the security or similar securities. Uncertainty can also be defined as a situation with more than one outcome. However, uncertainty is not quantifiable. On the other hand, uncertainty is a situation in which the participant is not aware of the probabilities of the outcomes. Frank Knight, an economist at the University of Chicago, summarized the differences between risk and uncertainty by stating: “Uncertainty must be understood in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of risk, from which it has never been properly separated. The essential fact is that "risk" means in some cases a quantity capable of measurement, while in other cases it is something which clearly does not have this character; and there are profound and crucial differences in the scope of the phenomena depending on which of the two is actually present and operating. It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper, as we will use the term, is so different from a non-measurable uncertainty that it is not in fact an uncertainty in... the middle of the paper. .....like the one depicted at the end of the document) to find the area under the curve representing values ​​between $600 and $500. After examining the table, we will find that the area of ​​the specified region is 0, 4222, which translates to a 42.22% probability of occurrence. The standard score is positive, like the one above, when the result is above average, but will be negative when it is below average. For example, if we want to know the probability that the profit of investment A is between $400 and $500, we will get a standard score of -1.42. Even if the standard score is negative, we can find the probability in the same way, using the table, which will give us a probability of 42.22%. Because a normal distribution is symmetric about the mean, the probability that two separate outcomes on either side of the mean are equally likely to occur.